I'm back in 1990

Chapter 1107: 3 Questions

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At this point, Huang Xiaochuan looked at his three children. His niece and son seemed to have grasped the concept, while his daughter seemed to understand but not quite. However, he was not in a hurry and continued to give examples: "The same event happened again during the electrical revolution. In 1920, the United States began large-scale electrification. Electric lights, wires, and radios quickly became widespread. The most popular company at the time was the RCA, which held a large number of radio technology patents."

This convinced investors at the time that radio was the future of communication, and the company's stock price soared. The company's decision-makers were also blindly confident and borrowed a lot of money from banks and other financial institutions to invest in research and development and build giant signal towers.

Then in 1929, the stock market crashed, the speculative bubble burst, and the company's stock price plummeted from a high of $114 to just $2.4.

At this point, Huang Ruiying interjected, "Aren't mobile phone usage fees already quite cheap?"

Seeing that his daughter was listening attentively, Huang Xiaochuan was very happy: "So! Now mobile communication and electricity have become infrastructure like tap water, which has enabled a large number of modern technology companies to develop, such as the automobile and computer industries."

Therefore, every technological revolution basically goes through the three stages I mentioned. The first stage is the stage of frantically investing in research and development and infrastructure, and the second stage is the stage of the bubble bursting. Only after going through the first two stages can the developed technology truly benefit everyone.

At this moment, Huang Zeji poured a cup of tea into his teacup. Huang Xiaochuan habitually smelled the aroma of the tea first, and then took a sip.

"The two examples I just mentioned, railways and radio, actually have a common feature: when the bubble bursts, most people feel like the sky is falling, that the technology is definitely finished, and that they have lost everything in their lives. But the truth is quite the opposite. Only after the bubble bursts will the truly valuable things settle down."

Therefore, you need to understand this point and take this phenomenon into account in any research or investment.

Tang Ruixuan nodded thoughtfully. She could tell from her uncle's words that he was guiding her based on her current situation.

Sure enough, her uncle asked her, "Xuanxuan, you just mentioned some of the current situation of Jinling Mingzhi. Now tell me about it again."

After thinking for a moment, Tang Ruixuan said, "Tong Hua's research and development progress is slower than expected. He initially said he would develop a visual recognition model within three years, but two years have passed. In a laboratory environment, they can only achieve an 85% recognition rate, but in real-world outdoor scenarios, the recognition rate drops to around 50%. As you know, last year I invested more money from my own account, and with the investors you introduced me to, we currently have sufficient funds. However, if there isn't a breakthrough in the remaining year..."

Huang Xiaochuan showed no sign of worry or disappointment. Instead, he looked at Tang Ruixuan with approval: "It seems you took my words to heart, which is good. But do you know how many companies around the world are currently researching artificial intelligence?"

Tang Ruixuan shook her head: "I don't know the exact number, but I estimate it will definitely be no less."

Huang Xiaochuan held up three fingers: "I had someone count that there are currently more than 300 companies and organizations of all sizes in the world conducting research on artificial intelligence. Among these 300, some have overlapping research projects, while others are unique. In short, they are involved in research on all aspects of artificial intelligence."

Upon hearing this number, Huang Ruiying couldn't help but exclaim, "So many?"

Huang Xiaochuan smiled and looked at his daughter: "A lot? Do you know that at its peak, there were hundreds of companies in the United States researching or operating radio? In the end, no more than one hand survived. So, the development and research of artificial intelligence is still in its infancy and has not yet reached its peak."

He then looked at Tang Ruixuan: "Based on the experience of technological revolutions in history, this number will increase several times over in the next five to eight years. At that time, more capital will come in, more entrepreneurs will flock in, valuations will be higher and higher, and the stories will be more and more appealing, and then..."

The quick-witted Tang Ruixuan picked up where her uncle left off: "Then the bubble burst."

Huang Xiaochuan smiled and looked at Tang Ruixuan: "That's right, bubbles will burst, that's an economic law that no one can escape. But I want you to understand one thing: bursting a bubble is not the end of the world. On the contrary, it's a good thing for technological development. Companies with real business logic will not only survive, but will thrive, because after the bubble bursts, there will be fewer competitors, and capital will return to rationality."

Huang Zeji, who had been listening attentively, suddenly asked, "Dad, how do you determine if a company is truly valuable?"

Huang Xiaochuan glanced at his son, then pointed to the teacup in front of him: "Pour me some. Don't you have any sense of propriety?"

Huang Zeji, who was listening intently, chuckled and quickly refilled his father's teacup with tea.

Huang Xiaochuan then said, "In my opinion, to judge whether a company is valuable, you can't just look at how cool its technology is or how impressive its team is. You have to ask the founders three questions first: First, what real problems will this technology solve after it's developed? Second, is its solution to this problem more efficient, cheaper, and easier to use than existing methods? Third, can its business model allow it to survive until the technology matures?"

Huang Ze nodded thoughtfully, keeping his father's words firmly in mind. Ever since he fell in love with photography, with the growth of age and the development of technology, he had some ideas, but the time was not right yet. When the time was right, he would like to give it a try. Therefore, the three questions he heard today were definitely very helpful to him.

At this moment, Huang Xiaochuan said to his niece, "Xuanxuan, you can ask Tong Hua these three questions. If he can answer them and convince you, then continue to vote. If he himself is ambiguous, then you need to reconsider."

Tang Ruixuan nodded solemnly: "I understand, Uncle."

Huang Xiaochuan then looked at his two children. Summer was approaching and they would be taking the college entrance examination. Time really flies; in the blink of an eye, the two children were already seventeen.

"Don't think this has nothing to do with you two. Listening to this won't hurt, and it will also help you think things through and apply what you've learned. Xiaodong, the college entrance exam is in June. What are your plans? What major are you thinking of applying for?"

"Dad, you know I've always wanted to study computer science."